THE SEIDQR MODEL FOR MALWARE PROPAGATION IN COMPUTER NETWORKS

Abstract

Malware is currently the biggest threat to information security. In this regard, a number of mathematical models that simulate the spread of malware have emerged. They are compartmental models where the population of devices is classified into different compartments: susceptible, exposed, infectious, recovered, etc. The main goal of this paper is to propose an improved SEIDQR (Susceptible–Exposed–Infectious–Detected–Quarantine–Recovered) mathematical model to simulate computer malware propagation. The transitions between these six compartments are described by a set of nonlinear ordinary differential equations. The model incorporates the basic reproduction number (R₀) as a threshold indicator to predict the endemicity or extinction of malware. Both the equilibrium points malware-free equilibrium (MFE) and endemic equilibrium (EE) are computed and their local  and global stability analyses are studied. The stability of the result is stated in terms of the Jacobian of the system and the basic reproduction number (BRN) is also well-defined. Additionally, the system of equations created is solved and simulated using numerical methods and MATLAB, and model analysis provides impressive exposure.