• A STOCHASTIC MODEL WITH ANTIGENIC DIVERSITY THRESHOLD OF HIV TRANSMISSION UNDER CORRELATED INTERCONTACT TIMES

Abstract

This paper focuses on the study of a stochastic model for predicting the time to cross antigenic diversity threshold of HIV transmission under correlated inter contact times. In the estimation of expected time to cross the antigenic diversity threshold of HIV infected, there is an important role for the inter-arrival time between successive contact and it has a significant influence. We propose a stochastic model assuming the inter contact time between successive contact as correlated random variable and threshold distribution is mixed exponential distribution. The expected time to seroconversion and its variance are derived and numerical illustrations are provided.