• RAINFALL PREDICTION USING ARIMA MODEL AND TREND ANALYSIS OF FUTURE RAINFALL OVER RANCHI DISTRICT, JHARKHAND, INDIA

Abstract

Rainfall is getting heavily affected by climate change due to which pattern and intensity of rainfall of a region is getting affected. In this paper, rainfall prediction from year 2023 to 2050 is done for Ranchi by using ARIMA model. The historical rainfall data of 50 years is used to train the model. ARIMA(0,1,1) has the least normalized BIC value and is selected for future prediction. ARIMA(0,1,1) forecasted total annual rainfall for year 2022 with an accuracy of 87.35% which is very high accuracy for rainfall forecasting. Trend analysis of future rainfall from year 2023 to 2050 is done by using the predicted rainfall. Monthly future rainfall has significant downward trend for January, February, March, April, May, September and November. Whereas the monthly future rainfall of June, July, August, October and December has significantly upward trend. Seasonal future rainfall for Summer and Winter season has significantly downward trend whereas monsoon and post monsoon future rainfall have significantly upward trend. The future annual rainfall has significantly downward trend.