• TRACING THE HIGH RISK POPULATION OF HIV THROUGH CUMULATIVE MODEL

Abstract

The time to cross the threshold of the infected person is a vital event in seroconversion. Modeling in Statistics should always be biologically correct and the extent of approximations should be clear in model development. So, any bio-statistical model of a complex biological phenomenon not only need to be an approximation of real world but also has to be addressed to a specific target, to respond a precise question about the phenomenon. Namely, HIV models are used to estimate specific immuno- virological parameters, an optimized therapy or the expected number of newly infected cells. We propose a stochastic model to study the damage process acting on the immune system that is non- linear. The mean of seroconversion time of HIV is derived. A numerical example is given to illustrate theseroconversion times of HIV transmission.