• FORECASTING MODEL BASED ON FUZZY TIME SERIES WITH FIRST ORDER DIFFERENCING

Abstract

This paper deals with the design of forecasting model for annual district outlay for district Nagpur using fuzzy time series with first order differencing. Paper suggested modification in Fuzzy Time Series algorithm while defuzzification to forecast values of annual outlay. In fuzzy time series numerous modifications were suggested by various authors to improve forecasting accuracy or computation methodology. It is shown that proposed model achieves a significant improvement in forecasting accuracy as compared to fuzzy time series forecasting with equal weight method while defuzzification. To illustrate the forecasting process, the historical annual district outlay for Nagpur district is used.