• A STOCHASTIC APPROACH TO DETERMINE THE EXPECTED TIME TO SEROCONVERSION OF HIV INFECTED USING GEOMETRIC PROCESS

Abstract

This paper focuses on the study of a stochastic model for predicting the seroconversion time of HIV transmission using Geometric process. In this study of HIV infection the extent of contribution to antigenic diversity is influence by several factors, such as the different sources of infection, the frequency of contact. In the case of persons exposed to a HIV infection through sexual contact, the contribution to antigenic diversity would depend upon the number of contact in the time interval (0, t]. If the number of contact is increasing then the interval time between the contacts would decrease. In this paper a stochastic model to determine the expected time to seroconversion is discussed under assumptions that the inter-arrival times between contacts are distributed as geometric processes. Numerical illustrations are also provided.